Brexit’s Impact on Public Finance

| July 13, 2016

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There’s one main sentiment that stems from the United Kingdom’s recent decision to leave the European Union, and that’s fear.

Many public officials are contacting us and asking:

“How will ‘Brexit’ impact my entity and should I be fearful or concerned?”

Here’s what you can expect from the Brexit decision:

The federal-funds target rate range of 0.25% to 0.5% (set last December) is here to stay until more economic data is released, as Fed officials denoted an “uncertain economic outlook” as their main rationale for that range. This also explains the recent upswing in U.S. treasury and bond prices. The apprehension in the market and the outlook on future economic performance (brought forth by Brexit) has caused bond prices to rise, which means a further decline in bond yields.

Brexit’s Impact on Public Finance

Why? Fixed-income investments are the world’s safest investments because the U.S. government guarantees them. With such assurances, investors around the globe flock to U.S. treasuries and bonds in order to protect their assets from national and international economic insecurity.

If your entity was looking for the perfect time to borrow money—and you had budgeted a particular amount for debt service—now is the perfect time to maximize your entity’s ability to borrow more money more inexpensively.

When it comes to your cash position, there’s an even further need for public entities to maximize the usefulness of their liquidity position. Deposit rates will continue to remain stagnant and could even fall slightly.

Although private retail lending has slowed this year compared to last, the Fed’s rate-holding pattern could indicate private expansion in many U.S. communities. As individuals and private enterprises realize that the next 12 to 18 months may be their last chance to borrow at a significant discount, you can expect to see increased lending to private enterprises and individual retailers, leading to new developments in many areas.

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