Looking back through 2022, the outlook I provided last December was extremely accurate. In gauging short-term interest rates, my outlook included the prediction that short-term rates would rise above 1.0%, when rates were virtually at .0% at this time last year.
By January 2022, we were one of the first companies to predict that short-term rates would top 4.0% by year-end 2022. That has happened.
By March 2022, I adjusted my outlook to suggest that short-term rates will top 6.0% in 2023. I am still confident that will be the case, which means the value of all cash is extremely valuable as a revenue-generating asset.
As a public entity or higher Ed finance official, if your cash is not earning 3.75% to 4.5% at this point, then I urge you to be proactive and use liquidity data to view all your entity’s cash that is available to be invested, and then put it to work to outpace documented benchmarks. The new revenue you generate could be the best gift that you can give to your taxpayers and students.
My outlook for 2023 is as follows:
- Short-term rates will hit 6.0%, making investment of cash even more valuable as a revenue-generating asset.
- The annual inflation rate will continue to be above 5.0%. This increase in cost can be offset by the new revenue generated off invested cash balances.
- While U.S. economic climate and indexes may appear anemic, this should by no means guarantee an economic recession in 2023.
- Due to higher interest rates, public capital projects will slow down, but green energy initiatives, including electric vehicle (EV) purchases, will continue to be above average.
- Demographic shifts in the U.S. population landscape will be a financial challenge to all levels of government, especially in meeting the housing, medical, education, and community needs, especially around those entering the country.
- Banks will continue to have strong balance sheets and will not necessarily be proactive in pursuing new deposits unless a greater share of the client relationship is available for business.
- Requests For Proposal (RFP’s) for banking and investment services will increase significantly over the previous four years.
- Investment in U.S. manufacturing will continue to expand with massive commitment of corporate dollars. Add to that greater spending on infrastructure projects, and it will create more higher-paying jobs.
- The need for water will continue to be a high-valued commodity throughout the nation’s western and southern states. Agricultural growth will continue expand in the northeastern region. It should be noted that the cost of farming and fuel supplies will be on the higher range of the inflation curve, putting greater pressure on food costs to the consumer.
- Colleges and universities will continue to compete for a small base of potential students, especially seeking a greater share of “post-COVID” international students.
The year 2023 will be an exciting one for three+one and the clients we serve. By the end of 2023, three+one will have brought over $1.5+ billion in cumulative new revenue and savings that otherwise would have not been realized. This will have an amazing positive financial impact on the entities we serve and, in turn, to those that these entities serve.
Our very best to all for a wonderful and prosperous new year.
